Experts warn that the current El Niño event, which is expected to last from June 2026 to May 2027, could reach new levels of severity, bringing drought, heatwaves, floods, and other unusual weather phenomena to South America, Africa, and Asia.
Kareff Rafisura, Head of Disaster Risk Reduction at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), said global ocean temperatures set a new record in August.
According to the UK's meteorological and climate agency, this year's El Niño could be the "strongest in living memory". The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 69% chance that this could be the strongest El Niño since 1950. 
El Niño affects regions differently, but Goldman Sachs estimates that it could push global food prices up by nearly 16%. The knock-on effects could be felt worldwide, including in Europe, where food prices in the eurozone could rise by 1.3%.
However, price fluctuations will be subject to a lag across supply chains because the growing cycles of different crops vary. Falling water levels in canals and rivers could also disrupt agricultural logistics. 
Goldman Sachs therefore estimates that the full impact of El Niño on global food prices may not become "fully apparent" until the second half of 2028. UBS said the phenomenon could further exacerbate challenges already facing the agricultural sector, including fertilizer supply shortages and rising energy prices amid conflicts in the Middle East. 
"Even moderate supply disruptions could trigger greater price volatility than has been seen in the past", UBS said. 
According to HSBC's Global Investment Research division, it is difficult to calculate the total economic damage caused by extreme heat and drought. However, the losses this time are likely to exceed the trillion-dollar damages recorded in previous episodes. 

Garlic is harvested at a farm along the Kok River in Tha Ton, Thailand, on February 21. Photo: AP

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warns that this El Niño event could push at least another 49 million people into severe food insecurity by the end of 2027. WFP warns that parts of Central America and southern Africa will be severely affected by the phenomenon. East Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia could also be significantly impacted. 
The rainy season in Southeast Asia typically runs from June to October each year. According to Rafisura, a lack of rainfall could force farmers to delay planting, reduce
cultivated areas, or switch to other crops. "Agriculture will certainly be the first sector to feel the direct impact", she said.
Reduced output of key agricultural commodities such as rice and palm oil could have global repercussions. North of Bangkok, Thailand, 55-year-old Boonmark Marksuuk is facing difficult choices. In addition to higher fuel and fertilizer costs, he is now spending much of his time pumping water into his rice fields because of erratic rainfall.
El Niño is also putting pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for around 85% of global palm oil production. Palm oil is used in a wide range of products, from biscuits and lipstick to toothpaste and laundry detergent. Malaysia's Prime Minister has instructed the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security to find ways to mitigate the impact of extreme heat, which is forecast to hit the country hardest in November.
In Indonesia, farmers rely on rain to dissolve fertilizer into the soil and prevent crops from being scorched, according to Eddy Martono, Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association. "If there is no rain, people will certainly stop applying fertilizer", he said. However, this decision would affect the country's overall palm oil output.
"For Southeast Asia, whatever happens here, as well as the extent to which countries can protect agricultural production, will have a global impact", Kareff Rafisura commented.

Source https://vnexpress.net/